国际移民流入对进出口贸易影响的实证分析——来自美国的证据

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of International Immigration on Import and Export Trade:Evidence from the US

本文基于2000～2012年期间美国的移民与贸易数据,实证分析了国际移民流入与美国和48个贸易伙伴双边贸易的关系。研究结果发现:国际移民流入能够显著促进美国与移民来源地之间的双边货物和服务贸易;按照官方语言和发展水平分类发现,将英语作为官方语言地区的国际移民、人类发展指数较低地区的国际移民对双边贸易的促进作用更加明显。美国的国际移民政策值得我国考虑和借鉴,随着我国在国际舞台经济影响力的提升,应该考虑合理的移民流入政策来吸引国际劳动力流入,为我国的经济发展提供新动力。

Using the US immigration and trade data from 2000 to 2012,this paper tests the impact of immigration in US on the bilateral trade between US and its trading partners.The results show that international migration can significantly increase the volume of bilateral trade in goods and services between the United States and its trading partners.According to the official language and the development level,it is found that the promotion function to bilateral trade of international immigration from economies who regard English as an official language and economies who belong to lower human development index countries is more obvious.For the Chinese government,it is necessary to guide the inflow of international migration properly,accelerate the development of the domestic service industry,accelerate the pace of economic restructuring and attract international technical talents,to serve the development of China’s foreign trade.