摘要
从直接效果来看,特朗普的政策对美国经济产生了一定的信心提振效应和需求拉动效应,但是美国经济增长并未如特朗普政府最初预期的大幅上升到3%以上。其中有两个重要原因不能忽视:一是美联储缩表和加息周期的掣肘,二是美对外政策损人不利己。2019年,美国经济增长率下行将会大概率发生,美联储货币政策正常化进程将进入更加审慎的观望周期,美元指数走弱的概率较大,但也存在大幅走强的尾部风险。
Trump's policy has a direct effect on the US economy in restoring confidence and boosting demand,yet the US economic growth has not risen sharply to more than 3% as expected by the Trump administration.There are two important reasons:one is the constraint of the Fed’s balance sheet reduction and rate hikes,and the other is that the US foreign policy is detrimental to others without benefitting itself.In 2019,it is highly probable that the US economy will be going down.The normalization process of the Fed’s monetary policy will enter a more cautious wait-and-see stage.The probability of a weaker US dollar index is even greater,however,there is also a tail risk with the index going significantly stronger.
出处
《中国货币市场》
2019年第2期10-13,共4页
China Money
