由破向立,蜿蜒改善——2019年金融货币条件展望

Breaking and Establishing,and Improving Tortuously--the Prospect of Financial and Monetary Condition in 2019

二元模式推动中国快速发展的同时也积累了结构问题,经典表现为过剩产能、高额债务、虚化的资产价格。而这恰恰是近三年国内政策调控的主要脉络。文章尝试从二元经济视角分析近年来政策调控主线,并以此把握2019年宏观经济趋势和政策调控方向,进而展望2019年金融和货币环境。

The dualistic economic structure has promoted the rapid development of China,while structural problems have also been accumulated,which are characterized by excess capacity,high debts and asset price inflation.These problems precisely reveal the logic of China’s regulation policies in the past three years.The article attempts to analyze the main line of regulation policies in recent years from a dualistic economy perspective,thus to grasp the macroeconomic trend and the policy direction in 2019,and to present an outlook for the financial and monetary environment in 2019.