贵州省南部火龙果种植的气候风险评估

Climate risk assessment of dragon fruit planting in southern parts of Guizhou province

基于1961—2017年历史气象数据,综合考虑火龙果种植气候适宜性水平,利用AHP分析法、Ori-gin75软件以及ArcGIS平台下的空间分析工具,通过构建火龙果种植区的气候风险等级模型,对贵州省南部火龙果种植的气候风险性进行动态分析与评估.结果表明,随着气候的变化,极端最低气温和无霜日数对火龙果种植的气候风险影响程度明显下降,而极端最高气温的风险程度则明显提高,其余因子的风险变化相对平缓.且1961—2017年贵州省南部火龙果种植区的气候风险面积呈现一级>三级>二级>四级,分别占总面积的31. 82%、28. 97%、22. 24%和16. 97%.在气候变化背景下,贵州省南部火龙果种植的气候风险总体上呈逐渐降低的趋势.

Comprehensively considering the climate suitablility level of dragon fruit,the climate risk of dragon fruit planting in southern parts of Guizhou Province was analyzed by means of constructing a climate risk rank moduel for its growing areas.The analyze was based on the 1961-2017 historical meteorological data with the help of AHP analysis,Origin 75 software and spatial analysis tools of ArcGIS platform.The results showed that the influence degree of the extreme minimum temperature and number of frost free days on the climate risk of dragon fruit planting was significantly reduced,while the risk degree of extreme maximum temperature was significantly increased.The risk change of other factors was relatively flat.The climate risk area of the dragon fruit planting in southern parts of Guizhou Province presented first-level >three-level >second-level >four-level,which accounted for 31.82%,28.97%,22.24%and 16.97%of the total area,respectively.The trend of climate risk of dragon fruit planting in southern parts of Guizhou province was gradually decreasing from 1961 to 2017 under the background of climate change.