汇率变动对中-英水产品出口贸易的影响

The impacts of exchange rates' change on China's exports of aquatic products to UK

本文利用非对称的自回归分布滞后模型考察了汇率变动对中-英水产品出口贸易的影响,实证结果表明,英镑升值会促进中国对英的水产品出口,英镑贬值则会抑制中国对英的水产品出口。同时,英镑贬值比升值对于中国对英水产品出口的影响更大,且呈现出J曲线效应,英镑贬值先是增加了中国对英的水产品出口后则抑制了中国对英的水产品出口。另外,本文考察了2008年金融危机和2017年英国"脱欧"程序启动对于中国对英水产品出口贸易的影响,结果显示这两个事件分别使得中国对英水产品出口下降了0.2%和0.34%。

This paper uses the asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag model to analyze the impact of GBP’s change China’s exports of aquatic products to UK. The results indicate that the appreciation of GBP increases the exports while the depreciation of GBP suppresses the exports. And the negative change of GBP plays a greater role in affecting the exports, which delivers an obvious J-curve effects that the depreciation of GBP increases the exports first and depresses the exports after that. Moreover, this paper investigates the influence of the financial crisis in 2008 and BREXIT on aquatic products’ exports from China and find that these two accidents bring out the decrease of trade of aquatic products from China to UK by 0.2% and 0.34%, respectively.