我国财政支出结构性扩张的经济效应与乘数测算——基于动态随机一般均衡模型

The Economic Effect of Structural Expansion of Government Expenditure and Measures on Fiscal Multiplier in China——Based on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

为探讨我国财政支出结构性扩张可能产生的外部性效应,本文利用我国1990-2017年宏观季度数据构建结构向量自回归模型进行实证分析,识别结果显示消费性财政支出增加会挤出居民消费,而生产性财政支出对居民投资的影响不显著。为进一步厘清财政支出扩张对宏观经济的作用机制,本文运用动态随机一般均衡模型,将消费性财政支出和生产性财政支出分别引入居民效用函数和企业生产函数,通过参数校准以及脉冲模拟的方式对二者的外部性效应和传导渠道加以解释。财政乘数的测算结果显示,消费性财政支出乘数小于1,生产性财政支出乘数短期小于1而长期大于1。

In order to explore the possible external effects of the structural expansion of government expenditure in China,this paper makes an empirical analysis by the use of the method of SVAR and the quarterly data on the operation of China’s macro-economy over 1990—2017 period.The results show that the increase of consumption government expenditure will squeeze out private consumption,and the effect of production government expenditure on private investment is not significant.In order to further clarify the mechanism of fiscal expenditure expansion on the macro-economy,this paper,drawing on the analysis framework of DSGE model,introduces the consumption government expenditure and production government expenditure to the utility function and the enterprise production function respectively,and explains the external effects and transmission channels of the two expenditure through parameter calibration and impulse simulation.The calculation of financial multiplier shows that the multiplier of consumption government expenditure is less than1,and the multiplier of production government expenditure is less than 1 in the short run and longer than 1 in the long run.