中国城市群城镇规模分布演变特征及规律分析

Analysis on the Evolution Characteristics and Laws of Urban Scale Distribution in China's Urban Agglomeration

基于分形理论,从人口规模、空间规模和经济规模三个层面构建城市群城镇规模分布的合理评价模型,探索中国19个城市群城镇规模分布特征及合理性演变规律。结果显示:(1)中国19个城市群城镇规模分布以规模集中型居多,城镇规模分布的不均衡状态将会持续;(2)东部沿海城市群大部分处于城镇规模分布高合理阶段或高合理与中等合理的交互波动阶段;中西部城市群城镇规模分布合理性指数变化较大,部分城市群进入城镇规模分布高合理发展阶段;(3)中国城市群城镇规模分布可划分为规模分布趋优型、规模分布波动型、规模分布趋劣型三种类型;(4)城市群城镇规模分布合理性演变轨迹可划分为不合理阶段、低合理阶段、中等合理阶段以及高合理阶段四个过程。

From the perspective of population scale,spatial scale and economic scale,an evaluation model of urban size distribution rationality in urban agglomeration is constructed based on fractal theory.This paper explores the characteristics of urban size distribution and rational evolution of 19 urban agglomerations in China.The results show that:(1)The urban scale distribution of China’s 19 urban agglomerations is mostly concentrated in scale,and the imbalance of urban scale distribution will continue.(2)Most of the eastern coastal urban agglomeration is in a high reasonable stage or a high reasonable and moderate interactive fluctuation stage.The reasonableness index of the urban agglomerations in the central and western regions changes greatly,and some urban agglomerations enter the stage of high and reasonable urban scale distribution.(3)Urban size distribution in urban agglomerations can be divided into three types:superior size distribution,fluctuant size distribution and inferior size distribution.(4)The evolution path of urban size distribution in urban agglomerations is a large"S"shape evolution curve composed of multiple"S"shape curves,which can be divided into four processes:unreasonable stage,low reasonable stage,moderate reasonable stage and high reasonable stage.