纳雍珙桐始花期与气候因子的相关性及预报模型

Correlation Between Early Flowering Period of Davidia involucrate in Nayong County and Climatic Factors and its Forecast Model

为纳雍县珙桐自然保护区始花期的准确预报及其在旅游推介工作上的应用提供科学依据,利用2012—2016年纳雍县珙桐始花期物候观测资料和纳雍国家一般站地面气象资料,采用相关性分析法与月动力延伸预测模式业务系统(DERF 2.0)相结合,研究珙桐始花期与气温、降水和日照等气象因子的相关性,并建立珙桐始花期预报模型。结果表明:气温与珙桐始花期相关性密切;以气温作为预报因子,用5日滑动平均气温稳定通过15℃作为预报指标,建立了基于DERF 2.0的珙桐始花期预报模型,该模型的预测准确率达100%。

The correlations between early flowering period of Davidia involucrate and the meteorological factors of temperature,precipitation,sunshine duration were studied and the forecast model of early flowering period of D.involucrate was established by the correlation analysis and DERF 2.0 according to the data about early flowering phenology of D.involucrate and ground meteorological data recorded by Nayong meteorological station to provide the scientific reference for accurate forecast of early flowering period of D.involucrate and tourism recommendation of D.involucrate Nature Reserve in Nayong County.Result:Temperature is closely related to early flowering period of D.involucrate.The forecast model of early flowering period of D.involucrate based on DERF 2.0 is established by taking temperature as a forecast factor and using 5 d steadily moving average temperature above 15℃as the forecast index.