京津冀经济增长方式及阶段性特征

The Economic Growth Mode and Stage Characteristics of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

采用基于碳排放视角的经济增长方式的判别方法,结合《2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》中的碳排放核算方法,对京津冀1996—2015年的经济增长方式进行测定,结果表明:京、津、冀三省市的经济增长方式分别为低碳Ⅳ型、低碳Ⅱ型和高碳Ⅰ型。京津冀地区的经济增长方式先后经历了低碳Ⅲ型、高碳Ⅱ型和低碳Ⅳ型三个阶段;碳排放量增长率随经济增长率的增加呈增加趋势,碳生产率贡献率随经济增长率的增加呈减少趋势,表明过高的经济增长率不利于增长方式转变。因此,要提高京津冀地区的经济发展质量,实现经济增长方式的转变,就必须加快产业结构的优化和能源结构的调整,加大技术创新、人才引进,实现京津冀优势互补、协调发展。

The economic growth mode of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from 1996 to 2015 was determined by using the discrimination method of economic growth mode based on carbon emission perspective and the carbon emission accounting method in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.The results show that the economic growth modes of the three provinces and cities of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei are low carbon typeⅣ,low carbon typeⅡand high carbon typeⅠrespectively.The economic growth mode of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has successively experienced three stages of low carbon emission typeⅢ,high carbon emission typeⅡand low carbon emission typeⅣ;the growth rate of carbon emissions increases with the increase of economic growth rate,the contribution rate of carbon productivity decreases with the increase of economic growth rate,indicating that excessive economic growth rate is not conducive to the transformation of growth mode.Therefore,in order to improve the quality of economic development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and realize the transformation of economic growth mode,it is necessary to accelerate the optimization of industrial structure and the adjustment of energy structure;increase technological innovation and talent introduction;and realize the complementary and coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.