技术积累、空间溢出与人口迁移

Technology accumulation,spatial spillover and population migration

创新不仅是经济高质量发展的驱动力,而且对人口迁移具有显著的吸引力。本文在"人口争夺战"的背景下,采用包含内生和外生交互效应的空间杜宾模型,经验分析三类专利技术积累对我国省际人口迁入的影响机制。实证结果表明:(1)发明专利技术积累对人口的吸引力十分显著,而质量较低的实用新型和外观设计专利技术积累则对人口迁入不具有积极作用。并且从空间交互效应来看,技术相近省份的发明类技术溢出能够提高本省技术水平并降低创新成本,增强创新生产能力,吸引人口迁入。(2)本地人口总量、工资水平、教育水平以及迁移网络均对人口迁入有着促进作用。(3)空间效应分析显示,发明专利技术积累通过直接效应和空间溢出效应两种途径对人口迁入产生正向影响,凸显高质量技术溢出对于中国省际人口竞争的重要作用。外观设计类技术积累虽然对本地人口迁入有着直接的促进作用,但其空间溢出效应却会阻碍人口的迁入。(4)异质性分析表明,教育和医疗等公共服务更好的地区以及市场化水平更高的地区,技术积累对人口的吸引力更强。(5)对比不同空间权重矩阵发现,技术在经济地理或技术距离上的溢出效果比单纯地理距离上的空间溢出效果更加明显,交通和信息技术的高速发展使得物理空间对技术溢出的限制逐渐弱化。根据分析结论,可能的政策启示有:(1)加强研发创新活动,增强技术积累,以技术进步提升工资水平和创造就业岗位,促进"人口扎根"。(2)增强教育、医疗等公共服务和完善市场环境的投入力度,提升公共服务供给质量,促进创新对高质量人才的吸引力。(3)提升地区文化、经济和社会的包容性与和谐性,优化迁入人口的社会网络环境,增强迁入人口的凝聚力和归属感。

Innovation is not only the driving force of high-quality economic development,but also has significant attraction for population migration.Under the background of‘population scramble battle’,this paper analyzed the influencing mechanism of the accumulation of technology on interprovincial population migration in China with the spatial Dubin model,including endogenous and exogenous interaction effects.The empirical results showed that:①The technology accumulation of invention patents was very attractive to the population,while the technology accumulation of utility and design patents with relatively low relative quality did not have a positive effect on population migration.Furthermore from the perspective of spatial interaction,the technology spillover of invention in provinces with similar technology could improve the technological level of the province,which could reduce the cost of innovation,enhance the capacity of innovation production,and attract people to move in.②Total local population,wage,education and migration network all contributed to population migration.③The analysis of spatial effect showed that the technology accumulation of invention patents had a positive impact on population migration through direct effect and spatial spillover effect,highlighting the important effect of high-quality technology spillover on inter-provincial population competition in China.Although the accumulation of design technology had a direct effect on the immigration of the local population,its spatial spillover effect would hinder the immigration of the population.④Heterogeneity analysis showed that technology accumulation was more attractive to the population in areas with better public services,such as education and health care,and in areas with higher levels of marketization.⑤Comparing different spatial weight matrix,it is found that the spillover effect of technology on economic geography distance or technology distance was more obvious than the spillover effect on simple geographical distance.Due to the rapid development of traffic and information technology,the restriction of physical space on technology overflow gradually weakened.According to the analysis above,we drew following conclusions:①strengthening R&D and innovation activities,enhancing technology accumulation,raising wage and create job opportunities through technological progress,and promoting’immigrant population to be rooted in local life;②strengthening the input of public services such as education and medical service and improving market environment,enhancing the quality of public service supply,and then promoting the attraction of innovation to high-quality talents;③promoting the inclusiveness and harmony of regional culture,economy and society,optimizing the social network environment of the immigrant population,and enhancing the cohesion and sense of belonging of the immigrant population.