中国扶贫现状与演进以及2020年后的扶贫愿景和战略重点

Post-2020 Rural Urban Integrative Poverty Reduction Strategy:Development Status, Evolution, New Vision and Key Areas

本文旨在准确认识和判断中国城乡贫困的现状与特点,回顾和梳理扶贫政策与扶贫体系的演变和挑战,分析中国扶贫工作面临的新形势与新问题,据此提出2020年后中国城乡融合的扶贫愿景和战略重点。改革开放以来,中国经济结构转型、城镇化进程推进、收入差距扩大和人口结构变化将继续影响扶贫工作。中国城乡贫困人口持续减少,但多维贫困和消费贫困的发生率高于按照目前官方标准估计的收入贫困发生率,教育、健康分别是农村、城市多维贫困中受剥夺最严重的方面,农民工成为城市贫困人口新的主要构成,妇女、儿童和老人等特殊群体的贫困状况是城乡减贫工作需要共同关注的问题。中国仍没有建立全国统一的贫困治理体系,扶贫政策和投入的城乡差异明显。随着城镇化和老龄化进程的推进,农民工群体、城镇低保人群、未来由于贫困线调整所形成的新贫困人口的贫困问题,将随着经济社会的转型发展尤其在2020年以后会日益突出。基于此,本文提出2020年后中国扶贫新愿景,即到2035年建立城乡融合的贫困治理体系,以城乡基本公共服务均等化为减贫战略方向。2020年后的减贫战略需聚焦五个重点问题:未来经济社会发展条件的研判、新贫困标准的制定、城乡统筹的贫困治理体系的建立、基于权利的社会保障体系的建设、保障扶贫投入的财政金融改革,以期为新的减贫战略制定提供决策参考。

This article aims to describe the characteristics and trends of urban and rural poverty in China,to clarify the gaps faced by China’s poverty reduction,to present the changes and challenges of the poverty alleviation policy,and to identify the needs for a new vision of China’s post-2020 poverty reduction.A rural urban integrative poverty reduction strategy is then proposed with five key strategic issues being identified to support the development of such strategy.The factors such as social and economic transformation,rapid urbanization process,a widening gap of China’s income distribution and the change in population structure are influencing and will continue to influence China’s poverty reduction dynamics.China’s population under the poverty line has continuously decreased,but multidimensional poverty incidence and consumption poverty incidence are much higher than those being measured by income poverty.Education and health are two most deprived dimensions in both rural and urban areas.Migrant workers from rural areas are likely to form the major part of urban poverty while women,children and the elderly groups are particularly vulnerable.China currently applies a binary governance mode for urban-rural poverty segmentation instead of a uniform national poverty governance system.The poverty reduction policies and expenditures vary significantly between rural and urban areas.With an anticipated rise of the urbanization,the ageing population,migrant workers,and new poverty standard,a new poverty group is likely to emerge and requires special attention from policymakers.This article proposes a new vision for post-2020 rural urban integrative poverty alleviation in China.In particular,during 2020 and 2035,China will need to establish a rural urban integrative poverty governance structure,with the equalization of urban and rural public services as the strategic direction.To formulate the feasible poverty strategy,five key issues are suggested,including providing a more accurate prediction of socio-economic development conditions,establishing new poverty standards,unifying poverty governance system nation-wide,developing a pro-poor social protection system,as well as fiscal and financial reform and innovation to ensure the poverty reduction outcome.