人民币汇率体制改革进程与展望

Reform Process and Prospect of RMB Exchange Rate Regime

阐述人民币汇率制度改革的历史演进,总结部分典型货币的国际化进程,在此基础上探讨人民币汇率制度改革的未来走向。认为汇率改革应将人民币汇率稳定盯住一篮子货币的汇率水平上,通过引导市场预期防止市场出现一致性的贬值或升值预期。从长期上允许人民币有更大的波动区间,最后向汇率市场化转变。

This paper expounds the historical evolution of RMB exchange rate system reform,summarizes the internationalization process of some typical currencies,and hence discusses the future trend of RMB exchange rate system reform.It is believed that the exchange rate reform should fix the RMB exchange rate steadily to the exchange rate level of a basket of currencies,and prevent the market from having consistent depreciation or appreciation expectations by guiding the market expectations.In the long term,the fluctuation range of RMB exchange rate should be further expanded and the reform of exchange rate liberalization should be promoted.