基于趋势和跳跃成分分析方法的太河流域降水量序列研究

The Study of the Precipitation Sequence in Taihe River Basin Based on the Trend and Change Point Analysis Methods

明晰水文时间序列的组成并基于此开展相关研究是一种科学的研究水文现象的方法,可减小因序列的随机性产生的影响。利用序列相关性分析方法对太河流域1979—2012年降水量序列的趋势和跳跃成分进行识别和显著性检验。结果显示,该序列具有上升趋势且显著,而跳跃成分存在于2002年但不显著。未来太河流域降水量有较大可能呈现逐年增多的趋势,流域水资源量将增加,可以一定程度地缓解人口增长带来的用水压力,但有一定的几率出现枯水年。所得结论对太河流域的水资源合理配置有一定的参考意义。

It is a scientific method to study the hydrological phenomena by understanding the components of the hydrological time series and carrying out relevant research,which can reduce the stochastic influence of the sequence.In this study,the precipitation sequence of Taihe River Basin from 1979 to 2012 were used,and the correlation analysis method was adopted to identified the trend and change points of the sequence,which should satisfy the significance test.The results showed that the precipitation sequence had a significant upward trend and a non-significant change point in 2002.In the future,the precipitation in Taihe River Basin is likely to increase year by year,and the number of water resources in the basin will increase,relieving the pressures of water supply and use brought by population growth.But there is a certain probability of a dry year.This paper provides certain reference value for the rational allocation of water resources in this basin.