广东省工业废水排放量与经济影响因素的协整分析

Cointegration Analysis of Industrial Wastewater Discharge and Economic Factors in Guangdong Province

广东省工业化、城市化进程的持续推进,导致工业废水排放量逐年增加。为量化工业废水排放量与经济影响因素之间的关系,运用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等协整理论方法探讨广东省工业GDP比重、霍夫曼系数、工业劳动者比重对工业废水排放量的长期影响规律。结果表明:除霍夫曼系数外,其余2个变量与工业废水排放量均存在同向变动关系,霍夫曼系数、工业劳动者比重在前期对工业废水排放量影响较大,而后期主要是工业GDP比重。

With the rapid industrialization and urbanization in Guangdong province,industrial wastewater discharge increases year by year.To quantify the relationship between industrial wastewater discharge and economic factors,this paper used cointegration test,Granger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition to analyze the long-term impact of industrial GDP proportion,Hoffman coefficientand industrial worker proportion on industrial wastewater discharge.The results showed that,except for Hoffman coefficient,the other two variables had positive correlation with industrial wastewater discharge.At the early stage,the influence of Hoffman coefficient and industrial worker proportion on industrial wastewater discharge were greater than that of industrial GDP proportion,but the latter would mainly influence that during later period.