安徽省进口贸易与经济增长关系实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Import and Economic Growth in Anhui Province

运用协整分析、Granger因果检验、方差分解、VAR模型及脉冲响应函数分析等方法,对2000～2016年安徽省统计年鉴中进口贸易和经济增长两者的联系进行实证检验。可以发现:安徽省进口贸易有助于促进经济持续增长,两者之间具备协整关系,且存在格兰杰原因,经济增长在一定程度上也推进了进口贸易的发展。根据实证分析的结果,结合安徽省的经济现状,安徽省首先应在全省范围内增加进口贸易,强调进口贸易在促进经济发展上的重要作用;其次,转变发展理念;最后,注重科技创新发展,不断提升技术创新水平。

Using the co-integration analysis, Granger causality test, variance decomposition, VAR model and impulse response function analysis, the empirical analysis of the relationship between import trade and economic growth in the statistical yearbook of Anhui Province from 2000 to 2016 is carried out. It can be found that the import trade of Anhui Province helps to promote sustained economic growth. There is a cointegration relationship between the two and there is a Granger cause. On the contrary, economic growth has also promoted the development of import trade to a certain extent. According to the results of empirical analysis, combined with the economic situation of Anhui Province, Anhui Province should first increase import trade within the province. Emphasizing the important role of import trade in promoting economic development;secondly, transforming the development concept;finally, focusing on the development of science and technology innovation and improving the level of technological innovation.