公共停车场BOT项目特许期决策模型

Decision Model of Concession Period for BOT Project of Public Parking

近几年来,BOT模式在基础设施方面得到了广泛应用,尤其是在交通类基础设施的建设方面。随着停车需求的增加,公共停车场BOT项目正逐渐得到社会各界的关注。通过对影响公共停车场BOT项目特许期决策的因素进行分析,构建以净现值计算、累计概率计算为基础的特许期决策模型。然后,鉴于项目公司和政府方有不同的利益诉求,因此应当站在双方的视角构建不同的特许期决策目标函数。借鉴Shen等专家学者研究的BOT项目特许期讨价还价博弈决策模型,对双方的决策函数进行整合和分析,最终确定符合双方利益的特许期决策区间。结合四川泸州公共停车场BOT项目对决策模型进行实证检验,旨在论证模型的可操作性,并为政府和项目公司做出合理的决策提供参考依据。

BOT model has been widely used in infrastructure projects, especially in traffic infrastructures. As the number of parking demands increases,public parking BOT projects are more likely to attract attention from general public.There is a decision-making model about public parking BOT projects’ concession based on NPV and calculation of cumulative probability with the analysis of factors that affect concession decision. Because of the different needs of profits between SPC( special purpose company) and government,it is important to establish two concession decision-making functions to stand on SPC or the government. Finally,with the help of Shen’s bargain model in this field,we can determine the concession period’s scale by analyzing the two functions. Applying this model into Sichuan Luzhou public parking BOT project in order to test the operability,we could provide reference for the government’s and SPC’s decisions.