我国能源消费、碳排放与经济增长关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Energy Consumption,Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth in China

本文分析了我国能源消费、碳排放、经济增长的现状及其特点,探讨了我国能源消费、碳排放与经济增长的关系,通过VAR模型、脉冲响应函数分析之间动态影响关系,能源消费、碳排放与经济增长三者之间存在长期均衡关系,经济增长是能源消费的单向格兰杰原因,而能源消费和碳排放互为格兰杰原因;我国是高能耗的粗放型经济增长模式,碳排放阻碍经济增长;脉冲响应分析表明,相较于经济增长,能源消费对碳排放的影响更大,但能源消费过程中伴随的能源、环境问题突显,我国实行节能降耗的能源政策,低碳经济政策势在必行。

This paper analyzes the current situation as well as characteristics of energy consumption,carbon emission and economic growth,and discusses the relationship between the three in China.Through the VAR model and the calculation of impulse response function(IRF),the dynamic relationship between the three is analyzed that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between energy consumption,carbon emissions and economic growth:economic growth is the one-way Granger cause of energy consumption,and energy consumption and carbon emissions are Granger causality.As China's economy relies on extensive growth with high energy consumption and carbon emissions hinder economic growth,impulse response analysis shows that energy consumption has a greater impact on carbon emissions than on economic growth,but the energy and environmental problems are being highlighted in energy consumption.Therefore,it is imperative for China to introduce policies on energy-saving and low-carbon economy.