基于VAR模型的内蒙古农民收入影响因素实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on Factors Influencing Farmers' Income in Inner Mongolia Based on VAR Model

本文基于影响农民收入的视角分析农民增收的驱动,选取了内蒙古自治区1993-2016年的数据,建立VAR计量实证模型,并对影响内蒙古农民收入的因素进行了详尽的分析。通过对变量做格兰杰因果检验发现农业机械总动力与城镇化率都是农村居民家庭人均纯收入的格兰杰原因。通过方差分解可清楚的发现农业机械总动力对农村居民家庭人均纯收入的贡献率是很大的,相较而言,城镇化率对农村居民家庭人均纯收入的贡献率是比较小的。最后,根据内蒙古地区的农民收入的实际情况提出进一步拓宽农民增收途径的对策建议。

Based on what influences farmers'increasing income,this paper analyzes the driving force,selects the data of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 1993 to 2016,establishes the empirical model of VAR measurement,and conducts a detailed analysis on the factors influencing farmers'income in Inner Mongolia.According to the Granger causality test on variables,it has been found that total power of agricultural machinery and the urbanization rate are the Granger cause of rural households'per capita net income.By means of variance decomposition,it is evident that total power of agricultural machinery makes greater contribution than urbanization does to the per capita net income of rural households.Finally,according to actual situations of farmers'income in Inner Mongolia,this paper puts forward some measures and suggestions to further expand the ways of increasing farmers'income.