海河流域农业水足迹分布及对气候变化的响应

Spatial-Temporal Characteristics Agricultural Water Footprint in Haihe River Basin and Its Response to Climate Change

基于CROPWAT软件核算海河流域1990—2014年冬小麦、夏玉米生产水足迹,采用偏最小二乘法拟合冬小麦、夏玉米单位面积产量,在此基础上预测2020—2050年气候变化背景下冬小麦、夏玉米生产水足迹及各气象因子对水足迹的贡献。结果表明:夏玉米单位质量蓝水足迹、绿水足迹分别占其单位质量总水足迹的36.2%、63.8%,冬小麦单位质量蓝水足迹、绿水足迹分别占其单位质量总水足迹的76.5%、23.5%。流域西部及东部地区冬小麦、夏玉米单位质量蓝水足迹、绿水足迹较大;年水足迹呈现流域四周小、中部大的特征。2020—2050年RCP4.5情景下夏玉米单位质量水足迹在2037年左右经历由大到小的突变,RCP8.5情景下表现为由小到大的突变;冬小麦单位质量水足迹RCP2.6情景下在2042年左右经历由大到小的突变,RCP4.5情景下在2036年左右经历由小到大的突变,RCP8.5情景未存在显著性突变。

Based on CROPWAT , ArcGIS and Matlab , this paper analyzed spatial-temporal distribution of water footprint for winter wheat and summer maize in Haihe River basin during the period of 1990-2014 , simulated the yield under climate change during 2020-2050 and ex-plored contributions of meteorological factors to water footprint. The main results show that , a ) the blue water footprint and green water foot-print occupy 36.2% and 63.8% of the water footprint of summer maize respectively , while blue water footprint and green water footprint occu-py 77.5% and 22.5% in the water footprint of winter wheat respectively. The high value of blue and green water footprint for winter wheat and summer maize appear in the northwest and middle east of the region , while high value of the total water footprint appears in the middle and southeast of the region;b ) there is little difference between spatial distribution of blue and green water footprint in the period of 2020-2050 and the period of 1990-2014. There exists decrease and increase of the water footprint of for summer maize and winter wheat respectively. The total water footprints of these two crops show substantial increase during 2020-2050.