生产技术、投资专有技术与经济波动——基于包含房地产部门DSGE模型的模拟分析

Production Technology,Investment Proprietary Technology and Economic Fluctuations:Simulation Analysis of DSGE Model with Real Estate Sector

新常态背景下,中国经济进入新旧动能转换阶段,创新驱动成为中国经济发展的新动能。识别不同技术对经济发展的影响便成为塑造创新驱动发展模式的重要前提。利用动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,将生产部门划分为中间品部门、房地产部门和最终品部门,重点分析生产技术和投资专有技术冲击对经济波动的影响。模拟结果表明:生产技术进步对经济发展的推动作用稳定性更好,而投资专有技术进步对经济发展的推动作用幅度更大;房地产部门技术进步对经济发展的推动作用不如中间品部门。

Under the new normal background, China′s economy has entered the stage of new and old kinetic energy transformation, and innovation driven development has become the new momentum of economic development. Recognizing the impact of different technologies on economic development has become an important prerequisite for shaping innovation driven development model. Using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, the paper subdivides production sectors into the intermediate sector, the real estate sector and the final product sector, to focus on analyzing impacts from production and investment technology shocks on economic fluctuation. The simulation results show that promotion effect of production technological progress on economic development has a better stability, but promotion effect of investment proprietary technological progress on economic development has greater amplitude. Meanwhile, the role of technological progress in the real estate sector is not as good as that of the intermediate goods sector in promoting the economic development.