基于五元联系数的古建筑火灾风险评价

Fire risk assessment of the ancient buildings based on five-element connection number

针对现有古建筑火灾风险评价方法不能把风险系统的确定与不确定同时进行考虑的缺陷,将集对理论引入到古建筑火灾风险评价中,构建了一种基于集对分析的五元联系数火灾风险评价模型;同时,基于西安市回民街古建筑的实地调研,构建了古建筑火灾风险评价指标体系。在此基础上,采用传统的综合评价模型和五元联系数评价模型,评价了西安市回民街古建筑的火灾风险。结果表明:2种评价模型的评估结果一致,验证了五元联系数评价模型的可行性和有效性;同时,五元联系数评价模型的评价结果显示,回民街古建筑的火灾风险等级为Ⅳ级,但呈现下降趋势,其中古建筑特征、建筑消防设施、消防管理能力以及火灾处理能力等指标的风险都呈现下降趋势,而火灾危险源指标的风险呈现出上升趋势。五元联系数评价模型不仅可以对古建筑火灾风险等级进行判定,还可以分析火灾风险的发展趋势,实现了风险静态评价和动态评价的有效结合。

Aiming at the shortcomings of existing ancient buildings risk assessment methods which can’t consider the certainty and uncertainty of the risk system,the set theory was introduced into the ancient building fire risk assessment,and a five-element connection number risk evaluation based on set pair analysis is constructed.Based on the evaluation model,taking ancient buildings in Xi’an Muslim’s Quarter as research object,a fire risk assessment index system for ancient buildings is established and index weights are calculated further based on AHP and entropy method.On this basis,the traditional comprehensive evaluation method and five-element connection number evaluation model are used to evaluate the fire risk of ancient buildings in Xi’an Muslim’s Quarter.The results show that the evaluation conclusion of these two methods are consistent,verifying the effectiveness of the five-element connection number evaluation model.At the same time,the assessment grade of the ancient buildings in Xi’an Muslim Quarter is IV based on five-element connection number evaluation model,indicating that the fire risk is more dangerous,but the overall risk shows a downward trend.Specifically,the risk of ancient architecture features,building fire protection facilities and fire management capabilities index all show a downward trend,but the risk of fire risk hazard index shows a rising trend.Overall,the five-element connection number evaluation model can not only assess the fire risk grade of ancient buildings,but also analyze the development trend of fire risk,achieving the effective combination of risk static assessment and dynamic evaluation.