基于灰色神经网络模型的农村物流需求预测

On the Forecast of Rural Logistics Demands Based on the Grey Neural Network Model

农村物流和与之"配套"的农村经济之间关系密切,从其中相应的经济因素中能够对农村物流需求产生决定作用者出发,以BP神经网络具备的"非线性强拟合能力"作为依托,从而将其形成"非线性映射"关系;就模型外推预测所表现出的缺点提出相应的改进办法,借助于神经网络和灰色模型二者彼此结合的方式加以预测研究,对模型有效性做出相应的验证。

There is a close relationship between rural logistics and the “supporting” rural economy, and the corresponding economic factors have the decisive role on the demand of rural logistics;therefore, a “nonlinear mapping” relationship can be formed based on the “nonlinear strong fitting ability” of BP neural network. In this regard, this paper puts forward the corresponding methods for improvement in view of the shortcomings in the extrapolation prediction of the model, and make a study on the prediction by the way of combining neural networks and the gray models, and takes the corresponding confirmation to the validity of the model.