世界能源转型与发展——低碳时代下的全球趋势与中国特色

Global Energy Transition and Development——Global Trends and Chinese Characteristics in Low-carbon Era

石油时代向低碳时代的转型已拉开序幕,能源需求侧、供给侧以及政策变化对未来全球能源发展将产生重大影响。预计全球能源消费总量将保持平稳增长,到2050年消费规模将达到286亿吨标煤。全球中长期能源转型基本特点是去煤去油,天然气及非化石能源快速增长。中国石油需求预计在2030年前后达峰值7.1亿吨,天然气2050年需求规模达7 000亿立方米,非化石能源为发展重中之重,2050年将成为主体消费能源。中国煤炭占一次能源比例远高于发达国家和全球平均水平,因此能源转型力度大,体现出中国特色。

The transition from oil era to low-carbon era has begun. The energy demand side, supply side and policy change will have significant impact on global energy development in the future. It is predicted that global energy consumption will steadily grow to 28.6 billion tce by 2050;shifts away from coal and oil are general trends in energy transition process;and natural gas and non-fossil fuels will increase rapidly. Chinese oil demand will reach its peak at 710 million tons around 2030 and natural gas consumption will surge to around 700 billion cubic meters by 2050. Non-fossil energy is a top priority in Chinese energy structure transition and will become the main energy by 2050. China is making great efforts to push forward energy transition with Chinese characteristics starting out with its much higher share of coal in primary energy mix than developed countries and global average.