北极航道对世界贸易格局的影响路径和机理

The Influence Path and Mechanism of Arctic Passage on World Trade Pattern

为深化对北极航道重要性的认知,促进我国对北极航道的开发利用,文章在概述世界贸易格局的发展阶段及其主要影响因素的基础上,分析北极航道对世界贸易格局的影响路径和机理。研究结果表明:"二战"结束后,世界贸易格局经历美国单极,美国、欧洲和日本三足鼎立以及区域多极化3个发展阶段;世界贸易格局的主要影响因素包括贸易通道、技术革命、产业转移和国家政策;北极航道通过缩短海运距离和产生新的海运航线2条路径,在增加贸易流量的同时改变贸易流向,从而影响世界贸易格局;其中,缩短海运距离的影响机理包括提高贸易频率、降低贸易成本和改善贸易环境,产生新的海运航线的影响机理包括促进相关产业结构调整、改变世界海运格局和增加新的能源供给。

In order to deepen the understanding of the importance of the Arctic Passage and promote the development and utilization of the Arctic Passage in China,the paper analyzed the developing path and mechanism of the Arctic Passage on the world trade pattern based on the developing stage of the world trade pattern and its main influencing factors.The results showed that the world trade pattern had gone through three stages,US single polarization,the United States,Europe and Japan tri-polarization,and regional multi-polarization after the end of World War II;the main factors affecting the world trade pattern included trade passages,technological revolution,industrial transfer and national policy.The Arctic Passage will change the trade flow and increase the trade flow direction by shortening the shipping distance and generating new shipping routes,thus affecting the world trade pattern.The mechanism of shortening the shipping distance includes increasing the trade frequency,reducing the costs and the improvement of the trading environment.The other one of new shipping routes includes promoting the adjustment of related industrial structures,changing the world shipping pattern and increasing new energy supply.