中国锌资源供应形势及投资选区分析

The Supply Situation and Investment Selection Analysis of Zinc Resources in China

锌是国民经济建设中重要的基础金属原材料。从市场需求看,过去10年,我国市场对锌的需求量大幅增长,但近几年锌需求逐步放缓,增长乏力。整体来看国内锌矿虽新增了一定生产能力,但实现完全净投放仍将持续面临较大压力,预计2018年国内锌矿增量约为10～15万t左右。随着需求的疲弱,国内锌矿供应增加有限。中国再生锌供应水平较低,市场潜力巨大。精炼锌产量增加迅速,冶炼产能存在过剩。未来我国锌精矿进口水平将处于200万t左右,精锌需求仍呈缓慢增长态势,而国内供应增加有限,预计精炼锌进口还将保持60万t左右。预计未来5年,精炼锌冶炼仍然主要布局在湖南、云南、陕西、内蒙古地区。锌的主力产区也逐步向资源更丰富的地区转移,内蒙古、云南地区的产量增幅较快,内蒙古锌冶炼增长的空间最大。内蒙古、新疆、西藏、四川、湖南、甘肃是未来产能增加最主要的潜力地区。

Zinc is the important base metal raw material in national economic construction. The quantity demand of Chinese zinc market has increased greatly in past 10 years from the market demand, but the zinc demand is slowing down with sluggish growth in recent years. The overall production capacity of domestic zinc mine has increased in some degree, but it will continue to face greater pressure to achieve complete net investment, it is predicted the increment of domestic zinc ore is about 100,000 ~150,000 t in 2018. The quantity of domestic zinc output shall be increased with limited along with the weak demand. The supply level of regenerated zinc in China is low, but the market potential is huge. The yield of refined zinc is increased rapidly, so the smelting capacity is excessed. The import level of zinc concentrate will be around 2 million ton in China in the future, the zinc concentrate demand is growing slowly, and the do-mestic supply increasing is limited, so it is predicated that the import quantum of the refined zinc will keep in around 600,000 t. It is estimated the main layout of the refined zinc smelting is Hunan, Yunnan, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia area over the next five years. The main production areas of zinc are gradually transferred to the resource-rich region, the output growth of Inner Mongolia and Yunnan is faster,the smelting growth space of Inner Mongolia is the largest. Inner Mongolia, Xingjiang, Xizhang, Sichuan, Hunan, Gansu is the potential area for production capacity increasing.