价格变化下PPP项目残值风险预测研究

Research on Residual Value Risk Prediction of Public-Private-Partnership Projects under the Changing Price

分析PPP项目价格变化对项目残值风险的影响,并将PPP项目残值风险分解为经济价值残值风险和社会价值残值风险,构建价格变化下的残值风险计算模型。在此基础上,以香港西遂项目为案例,运用时间序列理论,预测价格影响因素的变化,进而对残值风险进行预测,验证该模型的有效性。

The paper analyzes the effect of projects’ price change on PPP projects,decomposes residual-value risk in PPP project into economic value residual risk and social value residual risk,and constructes a prediction framework of PPP projects’ residual-value risk. On the basis,takes Hongkong Xisui project as an example,predicts the changes of price influencing factors with time series analysis,and predicts the residual-value risk,to prove the effectiveness of the model.