农业干旱灾害风险模糊集对评价法及其应用

Assessment Method Based on Fuzzy Theory and Set Pair Analysis and Its Application to Agricultural Drought Disaster Risk Evaluation

开展农业干旱灾害风险评估,有利于定量认识农业旱灾和科学指导防旱抗旱工作。基于集对分析原理和模糊理论建立的模糊集对评价法,兼顾了信息的多尺度特征和评价等级的模糊性,概念清晰,计算简洁。构建了由旱灾危险性子系统、旱灾暴露性子系统、灾损敏感性子系统和抗旱能力子系统组成的干旱灾害风险评估体系和评价指标。将模糊集对评价法应用于2012年安徽省亳州市农业干旱灾害风险评估,研究结果表明,建议方法是可靠的,为农业干旱灾害风险评估提供了一种新途径。

Agricultural drought disaster risk assessment is one of the most important basic researches on the quantitative under-standing of the mechanism of drought risk and scientific control of drought risk.Assessment method based on fuzzy theory and set pair analysis can take the multi-scale feature of information and fuzzy property of assessment criteria into full account.The pre-sented method is simple in concept and convenient to calculate.Both agricultural drought risk assessment system and evaluation indexes are constituted by the hazard subsystem,exposure subsystem,damage sensitivity subsystem and drought resistance capacity subsystem.The assessment method is firstly applied to the agricultural drought disaster risk assessment.The results show that the presented method is satisfactory and it will provide a new approach for the evaluation of agricultural drought disaster risk.