鄱阳湖星子站水位变异诊断研究

Study on the Change-point of Water Level at Xingzi Station in Poyang Lake

为分析鄱阳湖水位的变异情况,通过综合变异诊断系统对星子站年均水位和逐月平均水位进行变异诊断,设定α=0.05的显著性水平,采用了滑动T检验法、克拉默法、山本法、佩蒂特法等多种经典变异诊断方法对水位序列进行了检验,并将各种检验结果互相比较印证,以避免错误结论。结果表明,检验出的水位序列变异年份集中在1999～2004年,其中2003年的变异最为显著。年均水位的均值减小幅度为1.12m。研究结果可为鄱阳湖流域水文情势分析和水资源利用规划提供指导。

In order to find out the change point of water level in Poyang Lake,the annual mean water level and monthly mean water level of Xingzi station were diagnosed by comprehensive mutation diagnosis system.Sliding T test,Yamamoto method,Pettitt method and other seven kinds of classical diagnostic methods were applied to water level sequence,and a variety of test results confirmed each other to avoid the wrong conclu-sion.The results show that the change-points of the tested water level were concentrated in 1999-2004,among which the most significant change-point was in 2003.The annual average water level was decreased by 1.12 m.The results can provide guidance for the analysis of hydro-logical situation and waterresources utilization in Poyang Lake basin.