摘要
将动态故障树理论引入深海采油树系统的风险评估,建立动态故障树模型,并根据动态故障树Monte Carlo仿真法进行定量分析,计算顶事件故障概率以及基本事件的概率重要度和结构重要度系数,根据计算结果对深海采油树系统提出风险规避的建议。
Dynamic fault tree model is established based on dynamic fault tree theory for deep sea Christmas tree system and quantitative analysis is achieved by Monte Carlo simulation method.Basic event importance and its structure importance coefficient,as well as failure probability of top event,are calculated.Suggestions are offered for avoiding the risk in deep sea Christmas tree system based on computing results.
作者
余建星
任杰
杨政龙
陈海成
YU Jianxing;REN Jie;YANG Zhenglong;CHEN Haicheng(State Kay Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;Collaborative Innovation Center for Advanced Ship and Deep Sea Exploration,Shanghai 200240,China)
出处
《中国海洋平台》
2019年第1期72-78,共7页
China offshore Platform
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划资助(2014CB046804)
国家自然科学基金(51239008)
国家科技重大专项(2016ZX05028005-004)
