工程项目进度风险因素叠加性影响研究

Studies on the Additivity of Risk Factors of Project Schedule

利用贝叶斯网络分析了在工程项目中,影响工程进度风险的各因素在不同状态下对工程进度的叠加性影响情况。利用贝叶斯网络建立分析模型,对本地近五年的工程建设项目资料进行分析,比较了风险因素的叠加和非叠加的影响。当因素状态为中、效率为差时,单个因素分别发生引起的进度风险之和是多个因素同时产生影响的1.46倍;当因素状态、效率均为差时,单个因素分别发生引起的进度风险之和是多个因素同时产生影响的-4.29倍;当因素状态、效率均为高时,单个因素分别发生引起的进度风险之和是多个因素同时产生影响的0.89倍。结果表明多个风险因素作用下产生的工程项目进度风险为非叠加性,且非叠加性影响的大小视项目管理的效率、风险因素的状态而定。

The additivity of risk factors of project was studied by using Bayesian net analysis model.The local recent five years project data was analyzed,additivity and non-additivity of risk factors were investigated.When factor conditions were medium and efficiency was bad,the sum of schedule factor caused by single factor was 1.46 times than that caused by several factors.When factor conditions and efficiency were bad,the sum of schedule factor caused by single factor was-4.29 times than that caused by several factors;when factor condition and efficiency were high,the sum of schedule factor caused by single factor was 0.89 times than that caused by several factors.Results showed that project schedule risk caused by several risk factors was non-additivity,and the effect of non-additivity depended on efficiency of project management and the condition of risk factor conditions.