铁路钢轨折断事件风险因素量化分析模型研究

Modeling for Quantitative Analysis of Risk Factors of Railway Rail Break Event

钢轨折断事件的发生受多种因素影响,为合理控制钢轨折断风险,需精确识别各类因素对钢轨折断事件发生的影响程度。将铁路线路划分成多个连续的200m网格单元,对不同网格单元内影响钢轨折断事件发生的人的因素、设备因素、环境因素和管理因素的状态进行量化,在此基础上利用Cox比例风险模型建立各类风险因素对钢轨折断事件发生影响程度的量化分析方法。利用大秦线钢轨折断数据以及钢轨生产管理过程中的全生命周期数据,对模型的有效性进行验证。本研究创新性地把Cox比例风险模型应用于铁路钢轨折断事件风险因素的量化分析,对铁路系统的风险控制具有理论与现实意义。

The occurrence of rail break event is influenced by many factors and accurate identification of the effects of these factors is necessary for appropriate control of the rail break risk.In this study,a continuous railway line was divided into several consecutive 200-m-long grids.The factors-including human,equipment,environmental,and management factors that affect the occurrence of rail break events in different grid units-were then precisely quantified for the different grids.Based on the results,a method for quantitative analysis of the effects of the risk factors on rail break event was developed using the Cox ’ s proportional hazards model.The validity of the model was verified by using the data on broken rails and life cycle data of rail production and management process acquired from the Daqin heavy-haul railway in China.This research creatively applied the Cox ’ s proportional hazards model to the quantitative analysis of risk factors of railway rail break event,providing theoretical and practical significance for the risk control of railway system.