石油人民币体系的机遇与挑战

Opportunities and Challenges of Petroleum RMB

2018年3月26日我国在上海推出了以人民币计价的原油期货,此举将直接挑战已经存在近半个世纪的石油美元体系。石油人民币期货市场的出现无疑将加速我国人民币的国际化进程,但是美元的优势地位不会轻易被撼动,人民币国际化之路也注定充满坎坷。美国挑起贸易战并宣布单方面退出伊核协议、制裁伊朗等原油进口国以及美联储加息等一系列措施都将弱化人民币在全球石油交易中的影响。但是,石油人民币体系仍可在国际能源交易的夹缝之中求得生存和发展。

On March 26,2018,China launched RMB-denominated futures in Shanghai,which directly challenged the petroleum US dollar system that has existed for nearly half a century.The emergence of petroleum RMB futures market undoubtedly accelerated the internationalization process of RMB,but the dominant position of US dollar would not be easily shaken,and the road of RMB internationalization is doomed to be full of frustrations.A series of measures,such as provoking a trade war and announcing a unilateral withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear agreement,sanctioning Iranian crude oil importers and raising interest rates by the Federal Reserve,would weaken the impact of RMB on global oil transactions.However,the petroleum RMB system could still survive and develop in the cracks of international energy trade.