皖江城市带财政支出绩效评价——基于时变衰退的面板三阶段DEA模型

Evaluation of Fiscal Expenditure Performance in Wanjiang City Belt——The Panel Three-stage DEA Model Based on Time Varying Decay

当前供给侧结构改革背景下,财政收支差距持续扩大是地方政府面临的一个较为普遍的问题。皖江城市带作为安徽省经济社会发展的重要驱动力,对其进行绩效评价,提升其绩效表现具有重要的现实意义。当前关于皖江城市带财政支出绩效的研究在绩效评价的整体性、趋势性和解析性上存在较大局限,而基于时变衰退的面板三阶段DEA模型能全面地刻画该区域财政支出绩效演变轨迹并解析出相应的改善路径。研究发现:皖江城市带财政支出绩效水平稳步提升,环境因素和随机误差对此影响显著,且规模无效率是制约当前绩效表现的主要因素;二阶段采用的面板SFA模型的管理无效率项呈现出典型的动态特征。据此,从环境因素、供给侧角度和管理体制机制等方面提出相应的政策建议。

In the context of the current supply-side structural reform,the continued widening of fiscal imbalance is a relatively common problem faced by local governments. Wanjiang city belt,as the important driving force of economic and social devel. opment in Anhui province,it has a great practical significance to enhance its performance by evaluating its performance. The current research on the fiscal expenditure performance of Wanjiang city belt has great limitations on the integrity,the trend and the analyticity of performance evaluation,whereas the panel three-stage DEA model based on time varying decay can fully depict the track of performance evolution of fiscal expenditure in the region and analyze the corresponding improvement path. The study finds that:The fiscal expenditure performance has been steadily increased in Wanjiang city belt,environmental fac. tors and random errors have had significant impacts on fiscal expenditure performance,and scale inefficiency is the main fac. tor that restricts the current performance;And the panel SFA model adopted in the second stage presents the typical dynamic characteristics. Accordingly,this paper proposes the corresponding policy suggestions from the aspects of environmental fac. tors,supply side perspectives,and management system mechanisms.