农户分化的演化逻辑、历史演变与未来展望

Evolution Logic, Historical Evolution and Future Prospects of Rural-household Differentiation

基于农户分化的演化逻辑以及农业部全国农村固定观察点的微观农户数据,对当前农户分化状况进行了分析,并对农户分化的未来走向进行了展望。研究表明,农户分化的演化逻辑是由制度政策放活和农业转型发展驱动两大变异因素所诱导,并在演化历程中通过影响变异因素而实现进一步演化发展。其中,制度政策的放活主要体现在劳动力要素空间移动由"严格控制"转变为"规范引导"和"服务保障",再转变为"带动提升";农业转型发展的驱动主要表现为农业资本有机构成提高的"涓滴效应",以及城镇化发展与农业产业内部结构变化、农村就业结构变化的"一拉两推"。农业部全国农村固定观察点的数据显示,当前农户分化态势明显,纯农户比例不断下降而非农户的比例不断上升。未来兼业农户将是农户的主流类型,纯农户比例进一步下降且种粮纯农户的经营规模将会逐步扩大,非农户更倾向于选择退出农业生产。

This paper analyzes the evolution logic of rural-household differentiation and the current situation of rural-household differentiation based on the micro-level data of the National Fixed Point Survey of the Ministry of Agriculture,and looks forward to the future trend of rural-household differentiation.The conclusion of this study shows that the rural-household differentiation can be induced by the result of the liberalization of institutional policies and the development of agricultural transformation.In the course of evolution,further evolution and development can be achieved by influencing variation factors.The liberalization of institutional policy can be mainly reflected in the transformation of the spatial movement of labor force elements from“strict control”to“normative guidance,service guarantee”and then to“promoting”.The driving force of agricultural transformation development can be mainly manifested in the trickle-down effect of improving the organic composition of agricultural capital,“One pull,two push”for the development of urbanization,the change of internal structure of agricultural industry,and the change of employment structure in rural areas.The data from the National Fixed Point Survey of the Ministry of Agriculture shows that the current situation of rural-household differentiationis obvious,and the proportion of pure farmers is declining,while the proportion of non-farmers is rising.In the future,part-time farmers will be the mainstream type of rural-household,the proportion of pure farmers will further decline and the scale of operation of pure farmers will gradually expand,non-farmers are more inclined to opt out of agricultural production.