人民币汇率变动对贸易条件的影响研究

Analysis of the Influence of RMB Exchange Rate on the Terms of Trade

采用1999-2016年季度数据,研究了人民币汇率变动对中国贸易条件的影响。研究结果表明,人民币名义有效汇率的上升会改善价格贸易条件和收入贸易条件。此外,经济增长对于两种贸易条件的影响方向恰好相反,即经济增长倾向于恶化中国的价格贸易条件,但会改善收入贸易条件;外商直接投资对价格贸易条件影响并不显著,而对收入贸易条件具有显著正面影响;产业结构,即第二产业占国内生产总值的比例上升会改善价格贸易条件,但其对收入贸易条件的影响不显著。

This paper uses quarterly data from 1999 to 2016 to study the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on China's terms of trade.The result of the research shows that the rise of RMB nominal effective exchange rate will improve the net barter terms of trade and income terms of trade.In addition,the impact of economic growth on the two terms of trade is just which means opposite,economic growth tends to worsen the China's NBTT,but it will improve the ITT;the impact of foreign direct investment on the NBTT is not significant,but has a significant positive impact on the ITT;the increase of the industrial structure,that is,the ratio of the secondary industry to the GDP,will improve the NBTT,but its influence on the ITT is not significant.