突发灾害对疏散人群动态伤害的量化方法

Quantitative Method for the Dynamic Damage on People Caused by Sudden Disasters

突发灾害一旦发生将威胁人们的生命安全,为了评定突发灾害后果并及时应对灾害,需要快速准确地预测突发灾害下的人员伤亡情况。考虑到突发灾害的发展对疏散人群产生的动态伤害作用,提出了一种突发灾害对疏散人群动态伤害作用的量化方法,该方法同步模拟分析突发灾害发展过程与人群疏散过程,能够在更新人员个体位置的基础上同步更新个体所处位置的灾害产物特征量,从而精准量化灾害产物对疏散人员的动态伤害作用。基于该方法,可建立耦合突发灾害伤害作用的疏散模型系统,有助于突发灾害风险评估的研究与应用工作。

Once a sudden disaster occurs,it will threaten people′s lives.To assess the consequences of sudden disasters and the effects of countermeasures,it is necessary to quickly and accurately predict the casualties in sudden disasters.The sudden disaster that keeps developing will harm dynamically the people in egressing process,thus this study presents a quantitative method for the dynamic damage on people in the emergency disaster.Based on this method,the location of the individual as well as the"feature quantity"of the disaster product at the corresponding location can be updated synchronously,so as to accurately quantify the dynamic damage effect of the disaster product on the evacuated personnel.Based on this method,an evacuation model system for coupling sudden disaster damage can be established,which is helpful for the research and application of sudden disaster risk assessment.