基于序贯蒙特卡洛算法的电网可靠性评价方案

Research of Power Grid Reliability Evaluation Scheme Based on Sequential Monte Carlo Algorithm

针对目前智能电网解决方案的配网线路老化风险尚未得到量化的问题,提出一种用于电力网络的可靠性评价方法。该框架整合了一个网络层面上的序贯蒙特卡洛算法。计算过程划分到"网络状态&约束映射"、"网络优化"和"网络&架空线路状态可靠性映射"模块。通过可靠性、可操作性、天气和架空线路设计数据,对每个架空线路的充裕度进行评价。实验结果表明,所提方法可对现有方法进行改善,能够捕捉到架空线路故障风险的增加,且灵活性和风险抗性更加全面。

As aging risk of distribution network for smart grid solutions has not been quantified,a reliability evaluation method for power network is proposed.The framework integrates a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm on the network level.The calculation process is divided into“network state and constraint mapping”,“network optimization”and“network and overhead line state reliability mapping”module.Through the reliability,operability,weather and overhead line design data,the adequacy of each overhead line is evaluated.The experimental results show that the proposed method can improve the existing method,which can capture the increasing overhead line risk of failure,and the flexibility and risk resistance are more comprehensive.