东道国风险、境外经贸合作区与我国企业对外直接投资进入速度——度量与跨国面板数据实证研究

Risk of Host Country, Overseas Economic and Trade Cooperative Zone and Speed of China's Foreign Direct Investment: Measurement and Empirical Study Based on Cross Country Panel Data

为推动"一带一路"倡议,我国企业对外直接投资既要维持快速增长又要保障利益安全,这需要在理论上探明东道国风险和投资速度之间的关系。为规避风险,对于风险较大的东道国,我国企业倾向于以集群方式进行对外直接投资,这在宏观上体现为我国对该国具有较快的企业对外直接投资进入速度。基于此,本文在宏观上度量了我国对各东道国的企业对外直接投资进入速度,并通过实证研究发现,出于集群规避风险的目的,我国企业对外直接投资在总体上倾向于以更快的速度进入经济风险和政治风险较高的东道国;而在建有我国境外经贸合作区的东道国,风险则不影响企业对外直接投资的进入速度,间接反映出境外经贸合作区的风险规避功能。进一步地,本文利用倾向得分匹配估计方法发现境外经贸合作区建设本身也能提升企业对外直接投资进入速度,直接反映出境外经贸合作区在"一带一路"建设中的重要性。

To promote the“One Belt and One Road Initiative”,China’s foreign direct investment needs to maintain rapid growth and protect the security of interests,which needs to explore the relationship between host countries’risk and investment speed in theory.Based on this,we measure macro entering speed of China’s foreign direct investment in this paper.Through empirical research,we find that for the purpose of cluster risk aversion,foreign direct investment of China’s enterprises has a higher speed to enter host countries which has higher economic and political risk in general.While in the host countries which have China’s overseas foreign trade and economic cooperation zone,such risk does not affect the entry speed of enterprises foreign direct investment,which reflects the risk aversion function of oversea foreign trade and economic cooperation indirectly.Furthermore,we use the method of propensity score matching estimation and find that overseas foreign trade and economic cooperation zone can also promote entry speed of the foreign direct investment,which reflects the importance of overseas foreign trade and economic cooperation zone in“One Belt and One Road Initiative”.