中国与丝路沿线国家的贸易结构特征及贸易效率研究

A Study on the Trade Structure Features and Trade Efficiency of China and the Twenty-first Century Maritime Silk Road Countries

本文引入贸易结合度指数、比较优势指数和贸易互补度指数,深度阐释了中国与"21世纪海上丝绸之路"沿线国家的贸易结构特征,并运用随机前沿引力模型探讨了2006～2017年中国与东盟、南亚等15个国家的贸易效率及其影响因素。结果表明:中国与"21世纪海上丝绸之路"沿线国家贸易结合紧密,贸易互补性较高,具有很大的贸易提升空间;人均GDP对中国与丝路沿线国家贸易的影响远小于其他国家,地理距离与商品贸易流量呈显著负相关;区域贸易协定和共同边界变量的影响在5%的置信水平上不显著。

This paper adopts the trade intensity index,Revealed Comparative Advantage Index and trade complementary index to analyze the trade structure of China and the countries along the Silk Road.By using the stochastic frontier gravity model with the data from 2006~2017,the trade efficiency of China and 15 Silk Road countries,such as ASEAN,South Asia and other countries are investigated.Both the index and model show that there is a huge potential for trade between China and“Maritime Silk Road”countries.The influence of GDP per capita on China’s trade is far smaller than that of other countries,and the geographical distance is negatively related to the volume of commodity trade,while the impact of regional trade agreements and common boundary variables are not so significant.After that,policy suggestions are put forward to improve the trade efficiency between China and the countries along the line.