“娓娓道来”抑或“语惊四座”:股权再融资需求与自愿性业绩预告

Continuous or Surprise Talk:Evidence from Seasoned Equity Offering and Voluntary Earning Forecast

本文运用“娓娓道来”和“语惊四座”描述了公司自愿性业绩预告的两种典型方式,从传播学的“铺垫效果”和“期望违背”两个理论视角对业绩预告的动机进行了剖析,利用2010~2015年中国A股上市公司数据,检验了公司股权再融资与自愿性业绩预告之间的关系。结果发现,公司股权再融资促使公司进行了更高可能性和更高频次的自愿性业绩预告,而且投资机会和盈亏状态分别会放大和抑制上述关系。结果揭示,“娓娓道来”式的业绩预告是企业融资需求动机下的多数行为选择,这种具有“铺垫效果”的披露行为契合了传播学的理论认知。

This paper describes 2 typical ways of voluntary earning forecast using the terms of“Continuous Talk”and“Surprise Talk”and explains the incentives of voluntary earning forecast using the theories of Priming Effect and Expectancy Violation.The investigation of relationship between Seasoned Equity Offering(SEO)and Voluntary Earning Forecast(VEF)is done using the data of A-share listed companies in China from 2010 to 2015.We show results that there is a positive relationship between SEO and VEF,and the investment opportunities and earning status(loss or not)will separately enhance and reduce the tension of above relationship,implying that“Continuous Talk”is reasonable choice for the SEO firms predicted by the theory of Priming Effect.