基于国民经济核算视角下的我国资本形成效率测度及其影响因素研究

The Measurement of China's Capital Formation Efficiency from the Perspective of National Economic Accounting

本文从国民经济核算视角出发,结合目前我国由于过度投资导致产能过剩的宏观经济背景,提出了资本形成效率的概念,借鉴测度企业过度投资水平的Richardson模型,充分考虑其科学性和合理性的基础上,创新性提出过度固定资本形成测度模型,利用该模型对我国1993—2016年的资本形成效率进行测度分析,并在此基础上构建动态面板模型研究资本形成效率的相关影响因素。结果表明:我国资本形成效率随时间变化缓慢上升,但也存在过度形成和形成不足交替进行的周期性变化,其中过度形成持续时间较长,绝对水平较高,资本形成效率与无效固定资本形成水平有着相似的分布;除此之外,国有经济比重、FDI依存度、消费增长对资本形成效率存在负向影响,对外贸易程度和货币供应规模对资本形成效率存在显著的正向影响。

From the perspective of national economic accounting,this paper proposed the concept of capital formation efficiency based on the macro-economic background of excess production capacity caused by excessive investment in China.Based on the Richardson model,which measures the excessive investment level of enterprises,this paper innovatively proposed the measurement model of excessive fixed capital formation,and using this model analyzed the capital formation efficiency of China from 1993 to 2016.Moreover,a dynamic panel model was formulated to study the influencing factors of the capital formation efficiency.The results showed that China's capital formation efficiency increased slowly with time,but there was also alternating periodic variations of excessive formation and formation shortage.The excessive formation was of longer duration,and the absolute level was higher.What’s more,the capital formation efficiency and the invalid fixed capital formation level had similar distributions.In addition,the proportion of state-owned economy,FDI dependence,consumption growth had a negative effect on the efficiency of capital formation,and the degree of foreign trade and currency supply scale had significant positive effects on the efficiency.