美俄交恶与德国的应对

The deterioration of US-Russian Relations and Germany's Response

冷战结束已近30年,俄罗斯与欧美关系却重新高度紧张。早在1994年俄罗斯总统叶利钦已称面临"冷和平"危险;自2014年3月克里米亚入俄以来,俄罗斯与欧美关系急剧恶化,俄罗斯总理梅德韦杰夫称进入"新冷战",也有人称之为"小冷战"。德俄地缘相近,经济文化联系密切。德国是欧盟中影响力最大的国家之一,在欧美对俄关系中发挥某种特殊作用。2017和2018年期间,德美俄三国新政府的相继诞生,使其关系更为复杂并具有较大不确定性。不过,也要看到不确定性中的确定因素,尤其是德国始终致力于缓和西方与俄罗斯紧张关系,避免欧洲陷入"新冷战"。"小冷战"现已成为欧洲安全形势"新常态",未来出路应以欧安组织为平台逐步缓和并改善西俄关系,建立欧洲安全秩序稳定架构。

Nearly 30 years have passed since the end of the Cold War, and relations between Russia and Europe and the United States have again become strained. As early as 1994, Russian President Boris Yeltsin commented on the imminent threat of "cold peace". Since the Crimean crisis in March 2014, relations between Russia and Europe have deteriorated sharply. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said that a "new Cold War" had appeared. Some even called it a "small Cold War." Germany and Russia have close geographical relations and many economic and cultural links. The GermanyRussia relations play a special role in the relations between Europe and the United States. In September 2017, the CDU/CSU won again in the German Federal Parliament election. Merkel became the German chancellor in March 2018. US President Trump came to power in early 2017. In March 2018, Putin was re-elected in the Russian presidential election. Germany is one of the most influential countries in the European Union, and Merkel’s re-election guarantees German diplomatic continuity. Germany, the United States and Russia are all important countries in the world today. The births of their new governments make their relationship more complicated and uncertain, but there are also factors of certainty at the same time, especially since Germany has always been committed to easing the tense relations between western countries and Russia in order to prevent Europe from falling into a "new Cold War." The "small Cold War" has now become the "new normal" of the security situation in Europe. The future should be based on the OSCE as a platform to gradually ease and improve relations between the West and Russia and establish a stable framework for security order in Europe.