基于改进灰色关联模型的北京市防灾基础设施承灾能力研究

Study on Hazard-affected Ability of Beijing Disaster Prevention Infrastructure Based on Improved Grey Relational Model

灾害的频繁发生使得生命财产受到威胁的可能性与日俱增,提高防灾基础设施承灾能力成为城市防灾减灾的重中之重。本文以公共管理的视角,研究北京市防灾基础设施灾前预防、灾时抵御以及灾后应急救援的能力。在建立评价指标体系的基础上,通过层次分析法(AHP)及主成分分析法(PCA)组合赋权得到综合权重后,将其引入灰色关联评价模型,利用评价模型对北京市2007—2016年这十年防灾基础设施承灾能力进行综合评价。结果表明,灾前预防、灾时抵御和灾后救援能力发展不平衡,其灾前预防能力大幅度提升,但一定程度上忽略了灾时抵御和灾后应急救援能力。本文基于评价结果提出了提升承灾能力的对策建议。

With the frequent occurrence of disasters,the possibility of life and property being threatened is increasing day by day,the hazard-affected ability of disaster prevention infrastructure has become the focus of study for urban disaster prevention and mitigation.From the perspective of public management,this paper studies the capacity of Beijing’s disaster prevention infrastructure before,amid and after disasters.After the evaluation index system was established,combining the AHP and PCA analysis,the improved AHP-PCA weight was introduced to grey correlation evaluation model.Data of each index about Beijing from 2007 to 2016 was collected through statistical yearbooks.The results show that the current status of disaster prevention capacity in Beijing is moderate to upper level.In the past 10 years,the pre-disaster prevention capacity has been improved,and the ability to withstand disasters and post-disaster emergency rescue needs to be improved,and corresponding improvement strategies are proposed for specific problems.