弹道导弹突防效能评估的马尔科夫模型

Using Markov Model to Evaluate Penetration Effectiveness of Ballistic Missile

弹道导弹突防作战时面临着导弹防御系统多层拦截现状,突防每一层导弹防御系统时均可以看为独立过程,导弹突防状态具有随机性和无后效性等特点,导弹突防临近两层防御系统的过程近似为马尔科夫过程。将马尔科夫链转移概率引入突防多层导弹防御系统时导弹突防效能评估中,构建基于马尔科夫链的导弹突防效能评估模型,得到成功突防弹道导弹数量期望值及各随机状态的概率分布。分析结果表明,该方法简单易用,具有一定的应用价值。

While ballistic missile penetrates ballistic missile defence system(BMDs),it is face with multi-layered defence,and the penetration process of ballistic missile is independent in each defence layer.The penetration state is characteristic of randomness and non-after effect property.The penetration process between adjacent defence layer is markov process,this paper put markov transition probability into ballistic missile penetration effectiveness evaluation,constructs penetration effectiveness evaluation model based on discrete markov chain,and gains the expected value and the probability distribution of successfully penetrated missile.The research result shows that the method is easy to use and the model is effective.