基于贝叶斯网络的常规导弹反舰作战效能评估

Evaluation of Conventional Missile Anti-ship Combat Effectiveness Based on Bayesian Network

当前,常规导弹反舰作战效能评估已成为部队实战化训练亟需解决的一大难题。基于此,提出了满足时效性条件下的基于贝叶斯网络的常规导弹反舰作战效能评估方法。分析了作战体系结构和基本作战流程;建立了包含时效性和功能性两方面的评估指标体系;构建了贝叶斯网络模型,确定了先验概率和CPT的计算方法并给出了具体的评估步骤;利用Netica软件进行了算例的仿真实验并结合评估结果进行了简单分析。为常规导弹反舰作战体系的发展进步提供了坚实的理论基础,为未来反舰作战的辅助决策提供了科学的指导意见。

At present,the evaluation of anti-ship combat effectiveness of conventional missile has become a difficult problem to be solved. Based on this,this paper proposes an evaluation method of conventional missile anti -ship combat effectiveness based on Bayesian network. Firstly,the combat system structure and the base wood combat flow are analyzed. Then,the evaluation index system including time and functionality was established. Then,the Bayesian network model is constructed,the calculation method of prior probability and CPT is determined,and the detailed evaluation procedure is given. Finally,using Netica software,the simulation experiment and the evaluation result are analyzed. It provides a solid theoretical basis for the development and progress of the conventional missile antiship warfare system,and provides scientific guidance for the auxiliary decision-making of the future anti-ship warfare.