数值天气预报的成功经验对洪水预报的启示

Inspirations of successful experience of numerical weather prediction to flood forecasting

鉴于近30年来数值天气预报有了长足的进步,而在洪水预报中试图推行流域水文模型却进展缓慢这一现状,试图寻找洪水预报精度与数值天气预报精度的差距原因。通过对大气模式(型)和流域水文模型的比较,围绕预报方法及预见期、初始场和边值场、数据同化和融合等问题,论述了数值天气预报的成功经验和流域水文模型在洪水预报应用中存在的问题,期望洪水预报能从中得到启示,在不远的将来实现流域水文模型与数值天气预报的无缝衔接,以进一步提高洪水预报精度,增长洪水预报预见期。

Since flood is formed by storm,flood forecasting is the continuity of precipitation prediction.In recent 30 years,numerical weather prediction has made great advance,but the attempt to apply watershed hydrological model in flood forecasting is slow.The reasons for the different accuracies between numerical weather prediction and flood forecasting are investigated.Successful experience of numerical weather prediction and the problems of watershed hydrological model in the application of flood forecasting are discussed by means of comparison of the weather model and the watershed hydrological model.Problems discussed are the prediction methods and the forecasting time,the initial fields and the boundary value fields,data assimilation and data fusion.It is expected that great inspirations to flood forecasting can be obtained from the successful experience of numerical weather prediction.In the near future,seamless connection can be realized between weather prediction and flood forecasting,and as a result,the accuracy of flood forecasting can thus be improved and the forecasting time can be extended.