混凝土坝长期运行安全的理想点法评价模型

Evaluation model based on ideal point method for long-term operation safety of concrete dams

为了分析混凝土坝长期运行过程中可能存在的安全问题,基于混凝土坝长期运行监测数据对混凝土坝的安全度进行量化;通过分析影响混凝土坝安全的关键因素,建立混凝土坝安全评价指标体系;结合层次分析法主观赋权与独立信息波动赋权法客观赋权确定各个指标的组合权重,构建了基于理想点法的混凝土坝长期运行安全评价模型。工程实例验证结果表明,建立的模型求得的各指标权重和混凝土坝的安全度与工程实际运行情况相符。

To analyze the potential safety problems in the long-term operation of concrete dams,the degree of safety for concrete dams was quantified based on the long-term monitoring data.A safety evaluation index system was established by analyzing the essential safety factors affecting concrete dams.Then,the subjective weight based on analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and the objective weight based on data independence and data fluctuation(DIDF)theory were used to calculate the combination weight of each index.Finally,a comprehensive evaluation model for the long-term safety of concrete dams was constructed based on the ideal point method.The validated result of an engineering example shows that the weight of each index and the safety degree of the concrete dam calculated by the model are in accordance with the actual operation of the project.