中国与新亚欧大陆桥国家贸易潜力研究——基于“一带一路”背景下的时空演化分析

The Research on the Trade Potential of China and Countries along New Eurasian Continental Bridge——Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Evolution based on the Background of "One Belt,One Road"

随着习近平主席"一带一路"倡议的推进,新亚欧大陆桥经济走廊已彰显快速发展的态势,贸易合作得到持续深化,合作空间被有效打开,在全球经济贸易活动中影响力越来越大。"贸易畅通"是"一带一路"建设的重要内涵之一,文章以新亚欧大陆桥这一重要的经济走廊为例,采用1996-2016年中国与新亚欧大陆桥沿线国家的面板数据,运用拓展的贸易引力模型,考察了影响中国与新亚欧大陆桥各国出口贸易的相关因素,在此基础上计算出中国与新亚欧大陆桥各国的贸易潜力值,通过对比分析,进一步研究表明:经济发展水平的提升对两国贸易起到积极作用,与此同时,"入欧"能明显促进其与中国的贸易合作;对比研究发现东欧与中亚沿线各国存在巨大的贸易潜力,且随着时间演变,这些地区的贸易潜力逐步得以挖掘,贸易重心开始转移至东欧与中亚地区。在上述结论的基础上,文章提出了新亚欧大陆桥经济走廊建设的相关建议。

The Economic Corridor along New Asia-Europe Continental Bridge has demonstrated the rapid development with the promotion of President Xi Jinping’s "One Belt, One Road" initiative. Trade cooperation has been continuously deepened, cooperation space has been effectively opened, and influence in global economic and trade activities has become increasingly important. "Trade is unimpeded" is one of the important connotations of the "Belt and Road" construction. This article takes the New Asia-Europe Continental Bridge as an important economic corridor as an example, and the panel data of countries along the China-New Eurasian Continental Bridge is used from 1996 to 2016. With the extended trade gravity model, the factors affecting the export trade among China and countries along New Asia-Europe Continental Bridge were investigated. On this basis, the trade potential values ??of China and countries were calculated. Comparative analysis shows that while the improvement of economic development has played a positive role in trade between the two countries, "entering Europe" can significantly promote its trade cooperation with China. Comparative studies have also showed that there are huge trade potentials in countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, and evolve over time. The trade potential of these regions has gradually been tapped, and the trade focus has begun to shift to Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Based on the above conclusions, this paper proposes relevant suggestions for the construction of the economic corridor of the New Eurasian Continental Bridge.