中国农业生产地区专业化现状及演变规律

The Present Situation and Evolution of Agricultural Production Areas in China

采用地区生产专业化系数,基于1988—2016年6种主要农产品的产量数据,计算6种农产品生产地区专业化水平以及各地区农业生产的专业化系数,并由此得出中国农业的地区专业化水平及演变规律,为我国当前农业专业化发展提供科学参考。研究发现:中国农业的地区专业化水平呈现倒U型趋势,并于2010—2012年附近达到最大值。从产业角度来看,不同农作物生产的专业化系数及趋势差别明显。其中,粮食生产专业化水平增长最快,但2004年以后增长有所放缓。从各个省区来看,各省区农业生产的地区专业化水平整体呈现的上升趋势,部分省份略有下降,最终各省份专业化水平逐渐趋于稳定。农业生产专业化的趋缓可能源于政策干预,推进专业化需要破除当前的政策约束。

Abstract:This paper studied the specialization characteristics and evolution law of crop production to provide scientific reference for the production specialization of crop farming in China.Production specialization of six crop production and the regional specialization were calculated by adopting the regional specialization coefficient with the production data of six major crops from 1988 to 2016 to find the regional specialization level and evolution law of China’s crop farming.An inverse U-shape specialization trend was detected in China’s crop farming industry with the peak value reached around 2010-2012.In addition,significant heterogeneity was found across different regions and crops.In particular,the specialization level of grain crop increased quickly at first,which became stagnant after 2004.Furthermore,most provinces experienced remarkable increase in specialization level,but the process slowed down in the past decade.The slowing down process of agricultural specialization might be attributed to the policy intervention,indicating that further development depends on policy adjustments.