失业率波动对就业者家庭消费和配偶劳动供给的冲击

The Effect of Unemployment Rate Fluctuations on Employees' Consumption and Spousal Labor Supply

基于中国城镇住户调查2010—2012年月度数据,本文实证分析了失业率波动对就业者家庭消费和成员劳动供给的影响。研究发现:(1)群组失业率每提高1%将导致就业者家庭消费增速降低0.48%,失业预期引起的预防性储蓄动机明显。(2)所有制异质性方面,群组失业率每提高1%,国有、集体和股份制就业者所受影响在统计意义上并不显著,个体或私营企业、没有固定性职业的就业者家庭消费增速分别降低0.50%和1.22%。(3)年龄异质性方面,临近退休的户主对群组失业率并不敏感。位于26—35岁和36—50岁的户主,群组失业率每提高1%,家庭消费增速分别降低0.49%和0.35%。(4)群组失业率每提高1%,将引起户主配偶劳动供给概率上升8.13%,与此同时,单身家庭消费增速显著下降0.69%,说明婚姻制度发挥着自我保险功能。以上结论对于评判中国失业保险制度,理解居民部门消费制约因素,以及劳动力市场结构调整具有现实意义。

Based on China’s monthly urban household survey(UHS)from 2010 to 2012,this paper empirically tests the effect of unemployment rate fluctuation on employees’consumption and spousal labor supply.The results show that:①1%increase in the grouped unemployment rate would lead to 0.48%reduction in households’consumption growth.That is,unemployment expectation will cause significant pre-cautionary saving.②In terms of the heterogeneity of ownership structure,1%increase in the grouped unemployment rate would not statistically significantly affect the consumption growth for those who work in state-owned,collectively-owned or joint-stock firms,whereas there will be 0.5%and 1.22%reduction in consumption growth for those who have no fixed jobs or those who work in private enterprises.③In terms of the heterogeneity in ages,the consumption growth for those who are near to retirement is not sensitive to the grouped unemployment rate.For those aged between 26 and 35(or aged between 36 and 50),1%increase in the grouped unemployment rate would respectively lead to the 0.49%(0.35%)reduction in consumption growth.④1%increase in the grouped unemployment rate would lead to the 8.13%probability increase in terms of spousal labor supply.Meanwhile,the single-families’consumptions growth rate will decrease statistically significantly by 0.69%indicating that the getting marriage could provide some sorts of self-insurance.This paper has far reaching implications to the assessment of China’s unemployment insurance,interpretation of the constraining factors for China’s low consumption rate as well as the adjustment of China’s labor market structure during business cycles.